- project level estimation not task level estimation
- theory of constrains
- critical chain = CPM + resource contrains + uncertainty
- identify critical chain after resource leveling
- critical chain
- second chain
- current estimate = expected right answer + permissible slip
- current estimate = last estimate
- current estimate = last estimate + permissible slip
- current estimate = last estimate - a few days shaving
- accurate task estimation is difficult.
- current project doesn't resemble previous projects
- detailed records are often not maintained
Using buffers successfully
- add buffers to absorb variance
- estimate task times as likely duration
- evaluate the project status by reviewing g buffers, not individual task.
- buffers != Delayed Finish Date
Evaluate the project status by reviewing buffers, not individual tasks
Three buffer types
- project buffer: a block of time placed at the end of a project's Critical Chain
- feeding buffer: a block of time placed at the end of a secondary chain of tasks at the point where it feeds into the Critical Chain
- resource buffer: A strtegy of assuring a resource's availability for certain key tasks
- Base duration estimates on likely durations
- Add sufficient buffers to task chains
- small enough to avoid unneccessary delays
Some Rules-of-thumb for Buffer Sizes
- Project Buffer: 50% of the unpadded Critical Chian
- Feeding Buffer: 50% of the saved padding
- Resource Buffer: 2 weeks notification
- 4 types of tasks Repetition 10% Variation 25% Innovation 50% Novelty
- unused task padding is lost to the project
- unused buffer time permits accelerated schedules
- an unused project buffer means your project has completed ahead of schedule
Work expands to fill available time
As a rule-of-thumb, how far in advance should team members be notified before they are to begin a critical task? 2 weeks.
Building the critical chain schedule
- define the project
- project objectives
- timing, scope and budget
- priorities
- develop a high-level WBS
- add detail level tasks
- enter task durations
- use likely durations when estimating
- calculate padding
- identify task dependencies
- calculate a tentative finish date
- add resources & resource leveling
- identify the critical chain
- shorten the critical chain
- identify the secondary chains
- calculate buffer sizes
- insert the project buffer and make adjustments
- Insert Feeding buffers and make adjustments
- monitor all buffers







